Newsletter: Intellifusion 5 incidents


Friday 5th November 2021

Hi Dhananjaya,

Here’s your weekly rundown of the global security landscape, highlighting key incidents that have taken place from each region in the last seven days;

MIDDLE EAST & ASIA

Afghanistan

Approximately 20 people were killed when a group of IS militants attacked The Sardar Daud Mohammad Khan Hospital in central Kabul. The group of attackers gained entry to the hospital by detonating a suicide vest at the entrance to the building. The remaining members of the group are then reported to have pretended to help the casualties in order to gain entry before opening fire and clashing with Taliban gunmen. IS-KP (Islamic State Khorosan Province) currently aims to destabilise Taliban Afghanistan through a combination of assassinations and major complex attacks in population centres across the country. The majority of IS-KP activity has been recorded around Jalalabad and the surrounding area, where Taliban members are targeted on a near daily basis with IEDs and assassinations.

NORTH AMERICA

Kenosha, Wisconsin

On 1st November the trial of Kyle Rittenhouse began in Kenosha. Rittenhouse is charged with the fatal shooting of Joseph Rosenbaum and Anthony Huber and injury of Gaige Grosskreutz. The trio had been chasing Rittenhouse shortly before midnight on 25th August 2020. Rittenhouse had been armed with an AR-15 style weapon following an open-invitation from militia groups, such as the Kenosha Guard, to protect property from protesters.

Mass unrest and violence had erupted following the shooting of Jacob Blake, a black male, by police on 23rd August. Governor Evers declared an emergency and authorised the deployment of the National Guard. Militias and participants such as Rittenhouse had sought to supplement state and federal authorities. The shooting of Blake came shortly after the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis which caused mass protests across the United States. The trial of Rittenhouse will be closely watched as a bellwether across the country in terms of race-relations, social justice and heightened tensions between police and the public. People and businesses should be aware of the potential for peaceful or violent protests across Kenosha, Wisconsin and the United States as a whole as the trial progresses.

EUROPE

Poland

Over the last few weeks, reporting has begun to show increasing cases of human trafficking from Belarus into Poland. Most of the migrants are coming from Iraq and Syria; likely flying in from these countries into Minsk and then being pushed/transported to the Poland-Belarus border. The motive for this state-sponsored human trafficking is to push back against sanctions imposed on the Belarus government following the re-election of President Alexander Lukashenko.

Poland has been increasing its border security measures but are coming across increasing numbers of sedans or vans transporting small numbers of migrants further into Poland. Most of the traffickers being caught are foreign nationals – German, Ukrainian, Georgian and Turkish nationals have been frequent features. Reports are indicating that foreign nationals are making the threat of human trafficking into Poland from Belarus a greater security threat.

These current dynamics of human trafficking into Poland from Belarus are likely to result in increased border security measures at entry/exit points. People travelling into Poland (from Germany or Ukraine or with German or Ukrainian passports) are likely to face increased attention and scrutiny from Polish Border Guards and Police for the time being.

AFRICA

South Africa

The African National Congress (ANC) suffered their worst municipal elections results ever with support for the party dropping to below 50 percent. While the ANC pointed to the COVID-19 pandemic and electricity blackouts as reasons for a poor turnout, the elections have been seen as an indication of the party’s waning popularity. Corruption within the party, high levels of unemployment and years of persistently poor levels of service delivery and housing are among the key issues that have left many South Africans disillusioned with the government despite President Ramaphosa’s popularity.

The drop in the ANC’s dominance is a possible sign of a shift in South African politics from a dominant party system to a multi-party system. South African politics looks set to be heading towards a phase of coalition governments if national elections follow the same trend as municipal elections. However, the diverging political ideologies of the political parties means the prospects of unstable coalitions is high. If this translates to economic instability and worsening living conditions, political tensions could rise further in South Africa.

SOUTH AMERICA

Chile

On 3rd November, clashes took place between authorities and Mapuche community members attempting to block roads between Cañete with Tirúa. The Mapuche community members were protesting the State of Emergency which militarised the region. In the clashes two Mapuche community members were killed and three were wounded.

The clashes came around the same time as the Weichan Auka Mapu, a Mapuche armed group, released a video demanding the removal of the military from the region. Tensions in the area have been heightened recently, and this most recent event will likely see retaliation in the form of arson attacks on forestry properties or other business interests. The Mapuche have often accused the government of being at the service of businessmen.