Intellifusion Newsletter: 5 Incidents to Catch up on from last 7 days.

Friday 17th September 2021
Hi Dhananjaya, Here’s your weekly rundown of the global security landscape, highlighting key incidents that have taken place from each region in the last seven days; 
Intelligence Insight Weekly - What's Happening in Asia?
MIDDLE EAST & ASIADemocratic People’s Republic of KoreaOver the weekend of 11th-12th September, the DPRK tested a new long-range land-attack cruise missile (LACM). According to a DPRK government statement the missile flew 1,500km in a figure-eight pattern before striking its target. Few details can be confirmed due to the low radar signature of LACMs, but if the claims are true the test marks a significant increase in missile capabilities for the DPRK, which has likely been developing the missile for some time as part of an effort to improve mid-range and tactical strike capabilities after a period of ballistic missile development. It is likely that the LACM could be capable of carrying a nuclear payload, although it is not certain if North Korea yet has the technology to create a small enough warhead. The test came just days before the launch of two ballistic missiles from a new railway-mobile launch platform in Yangdok, South Pyongyang on 15th September. The new launch platform highlights efforts by North Korea to increase the survivability of their growing nuclear arsenal and cause further concern as South Korean, U.S. and Japanese representatives met in Tokyo this week to discuss the North Korean WMD issue. Combined with recent satellite imagery showing reactor reactivation and construction work at the Yongbyon reactor, indicating that the DPRK will soon begin enriching uranium and plutonium again, these tests confirm the implacable progress of North Korea towards a comprehensive nuclear capability.
Insight Weekly - Europe Image
EUROPEUkraineOn 15th September, two Ukrainians were killed by a car bomb explosion in Dnipro; a city to the west of Donetsk and serves as a logistics hub/thoroughfare for the Ukraine military in Donbass). The casualties were a Public Affairs Officer for the State Emergency Service and a member of a firm called ‘Ukrainian Legion;’ a Private Security Company which provides military training in Kyiv, Lviv and Kharkiv regions. Given the nature of the bombing (an under-vehicle IED), the casualties and the disclosure by the SBU they are investigating it as a terrorist attack; it is likely this incident was carried out by pro-Russia separatists (either/both the Donetsk People’s Republic and/or the Luhansk People’s Republic). Intelligence Fusion’s monitoring of the Donbass conflict continues to feature incidents outside of the Donbass region. Dnipro has often featured shipments of Ukrainian military being transported through to the Donbass region and there have been incidents of espionage in the city too; car bombings are certainly out of the ordinary. Furthermore, this recent attack occurred shortly after an SBU team came under mortar fire while investigating an artillery strike which wounded six Ukrainian soldiers in Trokhizbenko, Luhansk Oblast on 8th September. This incident appears to be the first time for 2021 where pro-Russia separatists directly targeted personnel other than Ukrainian military. These incidents could be an indication that pro-Russia separatists in the Donbass region are beginning to slowly expand their targeting; both in terms of types of targets and locations. This could possibly mean there is an increased threat from the Donbass conflict outside of the Donbass region itself; particularly in cities between (and including) Kyiv and Donetsk/Luhansk. ➡️ SEEN FIRST ON OUR EUROPE TWITTER
Intelligence Insight Weekly - What's Happening in Africa?
AFRICAGreater Sahara President Macron this week confirmed that French forces have neutralised Adnan Abu Walid al-Sahrawi, the head of Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS). Sahrawi was killed during a reconnaissance and harassment operation carried out by forces of Operation Barkhane and the Malian armed forces (FAMa) south of Indelimane in Dangarous Forest, Menaka Cercle, between 17th and 22nd August 2021. A number of logistics plots were also destroyed during the air and land operation. The announcement by President Macron comes at a time of fraught relations between Mali and France with French Defence Minister Florence Parly warning that relations could be pushed to breaking point amid claims of a deal being made between Mali and Russian private security group Wagner that will see the government hire 1,000 mercenaries to train its armed forces and protection government figures. Protests have been held in the recent past to demand the intervention of Russia in the country amid rising anger with French Barkhane forces and UN peacekeeping mission MINUSMA.
Insight Weekly - North America Image
NORTH AMERICAWashington D.C.A ‘Justice for J6’ rally is planned at the U.S. Capitol for 12:00 on 18th September by Look Ahead America. The organisation is led by Matt Braynard, former Director of Data and Strategy for the Trump campaign. Approximately 700 protesters are expected at the demonstration to campaign on behalf of those charged in connection with the 6th January Capitol riot. Congress will be on recess and there are expected to be few lawmakers and staff at the Capitol. The complex has been reinforced with an increased police presence and re-erection of 7ft/2.1m protective fencing. However, the Department of Homeland Security has warned of possible violence leading up to and during the rally. A counter-protest has been planned for 12:00 at nearby Freedom Plaza which is likely to include Antifa activists. There are conflicting reports whether Proud Boys and Oath Keepers will attend the J6 rally in force; the event has been dismissed by some right-wing activists as a false-flag or honeypot entrapment operation designed to coerce participants into violence. People and businesses should be prepared for traffic disruption as hundreds of protesters travel into central Washington D.C. alongside increased security measures. The relatively low predicted turnout and increased presence of law enforcement means that while serious unrest is unlikely; the possibility of spontaneous violence cannot be discounted.
Insight Weekly - South America Image
SOUTH AMERICAColombiaOn 13th September, the Venezuelan hacker group ‘TeamHDP’ leaked top secret documents of Venezuela’s General Directorate of Military Counterintelligence (DGCIM). According to the documents, the DGCIM has deployed spies amongst Venezuelan refugees who now maintain a low profile by acting as ordinary workers in countries across the Americas. Most of the obtained data refers to Venezuelan spies operating in Colombia. According to the leaked documents, over 200 Venezuelan spies were active in Colombia as of 2nd March 2021. Their objective: to undermine the Colombian government of President Iván Duque by destabilizing the country. The documents mention a series of safe houses in Colombian territory and a group of informants within the Colombian government and military. Additionally, the documents mention that the Venezuelan spies are being assisted by the ELN, specifically when it comes to the abduction of Colombian officials and Venezuelan deserters. Fortunately for Colombian authorities, the documents include detailed descriptions of the spies and their activities. It is therefore likely that the leak will lead to counterintelligence operations across the country.
📽️🎙️🖥️ THE INSIGHT: An Intelligence Fusion Video Series  The Insight series aims to take a headline, topical subject or geopolitical development and explain exactly what’s happening and why it matters to you – all in under ten minutes.
The Myanmar Coup: Protests, Conflict, and the Future of Myanmar In the latest episode of The Insight, Regional Analyst Alex Smith takes a look at the development of a resistance movement following a military coup in Myanmar, the responses to the coup, and what the future may hold for Myanmar.
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