Friday 28th May 2021

Hi there,

Here’s your weekly rundown of the global security landscape, highlighting key incidents that have taken place from each region in the last seven days;


Azerbaijan and Armenia

A series of incidents have been reported along borders between Armenian and Azerbaijani territory over the last seven days. In the Gegharkunik area, Armenian and Azerbaijani forces exchanged fire in border areas, with an Armenian soldier being killed in a clash on 25th May.

The clashes came days after seven Armenian personnel were captured by Azerbaijani forces at the border near Lake Sev. Armenian forces claimed the seven were detained as they responded to an incursion from a group of Azerbaijani soldiers, whereas the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defence claimed the Armenian soldiers had entered Azerbaijani territory.

More recently, on 27th May, an exchange of fire was reported in an area on the border of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic in which one soldier was wounded. Armenian forces have denied the incident took place, and instead claimed the soldier was wounded due to a personal dispute with another Azerbaijani soldier.



This coming weekend will see multiple right-wing groups carry out protests in Rome on 29th May. Among the groups are CasaPound (at Piazza Sant’ Apostoli) and Area (at Via Paisiello).

Media reporting has described all these protests as ‘fascist,’ Antifa groups and trade unions have expressed an intention to counter-protest the CasaPound protests from Piazza del Campidoglio and the Mayor of Rome – Virginia Raggi – has been publicly criticising the groups involved in these upcoming protests.

While reporting on the group ‘Area’ has shown this organisation to be a fascist group (based on prior incidents and indications it is a reincarnation of Forza Nuova), reporting on CasaPound indicates it is more of a conservative, anti-EU organisation. The group appears to be reported as ‘fascists’ due to its larger size than other right-wing extremist groups and presence it has in Rome’s local politics. This group would appear to be the intended target for the upcoming counter-protest by Antifa groups and trade unions in Rome.

Given that protests in Rome – especially those in/near Piazza Monte Citorio (Piazza Sant’Apostoli is approximately 1-2km southeast of this location) – attract large police presence and unrest, these upcoming protests in Rome are likely to feature the same. In particular, areas surrounding Piazza Aant’ Apostoli and Piazza del Campidoglio will be among the most likely locations for unrest and rioting.


Democratic Republic of Congo

Authorities in Goma, capital of North Kivu province, have activated an evacuation plan with thousands evacuated from about 10 neighbourhoods after authorities detected presence of magma under the urban area of Goma and under Lake Kivu, raising fears of an eruption on land or under Lake Kivu. Inhabitants have been evacuated to areas including Sake, Gisenyi and Rutshuru. The eruption at Mount Nyiragongo has left more than 20,000 homeless, over 3,629 houses destroyed and at least 32 dead. Seismic activity has also caused damage.

Lake Kivu contains high levels of carbon dioxide and methane and there is increased concern that seismic and volcanic activity will trigger a limnic eruption. This will see the dissolved CO2 and methane gas release and form a cloud, threatening the more than two million people living in the banks of Lake Kivu. Such eruptions could also be accompanied by a tsunami. The last limnic eruption occurred in 1986 at Lake Nyos in Cameroon, killing 1,746 people.


Minnesota, USA

On 24th May, a group of activists blocked a construction site of the Line 3 pipeline project in northern Minnesota. Some of the activists locked themselves through the treads of an excavator on site. The exact location of the construction site was not revealed. The protest was led by the Giniw Collective, an indigenous activist group which has protested the construction of the pipeline due to its path through Native American lands and allegedly threatening waterways in the state.

Protest action targeting the pipeline has increased since Enbridge, the owner of the pipeline, was given all the required permits for construction in December 2020. Non-violent direct-action protests have involved blocking construction sites, workers’ camps, and roads in northern Minnesota. However, protests against the project have also targeted financial institutions across the United States and in the United Kingdom, due to their financing of Line 3 and other fossil fuel projects. The coming months will likely see increased protest activity by activists targeting the wider oil and gas sector and the banks financing it, with the Line 3 project likely being at the forefront of protests in the United States.



On 24th May, 16 people were found shot dead at two bars in the town centre of San Miguel del Ene, a village located in the VRAEM region of Peru. Pamphlets left behind at the scene described the attack as social cleansing and urged Peruvians not to vote in the upcoming national election on the 6th June. The pamphlets were signed “MPCP”.

The Militarized Communist Party of Peru (MPCP) is a Maoist terrorist group and the direct successor of Sendero Luminoso, or Shining Path. The Shining Path long terrorised Peru before they were beaten back in the 1990s by the military campaign of President Alberto Fujimori. The remnants of that insurgency now oppose Fujimori’s daughter, who is currently running for president herself. If Ms. Fujimori is elected, it could mean an increase in both terrorist attacks and counter-terrorism operations in the south of Peru.

Captured members of the MPCP claim some 330 terrorists are left in the VRAEM, a sparsely populated region where they control the production of cocaine and occasionally attack security forces.


THE INSIGHT: An Intelligence Fusion Podcast

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