Dhananjaya Parkhe

DhananjayParkhe

Via: Newsletter On the Radar

  A NEWSLETTER FROM
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A Joon A340 landing in Paris

Air France will shutter its rooftop bar

Air France has announced the personal assistant and fashion brand that’s ‘also an airline’ will be reabsorbed into its ‘big sister’ airline. We’ve talked about Joon’s unique and confusing place in the Air France family on AvTalk previously. We’ve also made it easy to track the Joon fleet before it disappears.

Read more

The Southwest Herb Kelleher 737

Southwest Airlines founder and aviation pioneer passes away
Herb Kelleher, founder of Southwest Airlines and aviation industry pioneer who paved the way for low-cost airlines around the world, passed away last week at 87. The airline established Honoring Herb as a tribute and you can follow the special livery ‘Herbert D. Kelleher’ 737 as well.

Flights wait to depart London Heathrow after a drone sighting halted departures

Departures held for an hour after Heathrow drone sighting

A drone sighting at London’s Heathrow Airport led to a halt in departures for about an hour on Tuesday evening. Arrival traffic was not affected. This comes weeks after drone sightings closed London’s Gatwick airport for much of a three day period.
Track flights at London-Heathrow
Aircraft in flight on Flightradar24
A record year for flight tracking
In 2018, we tracked 63,136,442 flights, over 4 million more than the previous year. The single busiest day was 19 July with 209,752 flights tracked. We’re hoping to track even more flights in 2019!
Help add ADS-B coverage in your area
FLIGHTS TO FOLLOW
The GE Aviation 747 carrying the GE9X engine
Testing the GE9X
GE Aviation’s 747 is currently being used to test the GE9X, the world’s largest aircraft engine, which will debut on the Boeing 777X.
Follow N747GF
A PlusUltra A340, the 4 millionth photo in the JetPhotos catalog
Aviation Photo of the Week
On 30 December, this photo of a Plus Ultra A340 by Javier de la Cruz became the 4 millionth photo added to the JetPhotos catalog.See some of the best photos from 2018
INSIDE FLIGHTRADAR24
All Flightradar24 supplied ADS-B receivers activated in 2018
Expanding ADS-B and MLAT coverage
We’re continually sending out complete ADS-B receiver kits to new hosts around the world. See where we activated new Flightradar24 supplied receivers in 2018 and how you can join the map in 2019.
Read more
UNDER THE RADAR – Bite size aviation news
Reuters
Flight Global
Bloomberg
Financial Times
DhananjayParkhe

Did you know

Did you know…

… that today is National #1 Priority Day? At the beginning of the New Year, on this day of triple 1s, get your priorities straight for the coming year. Do your number one tasks first.

~~~

Today’s Inspirational Quote:

“Most of us spend too much time on what is urgent and not enough time on what is important.”

— Stephen R. Covey

DhananjayParkhe

SEASONED NUTS: QUOTABLE

“Any fool knows that to work hard at something you want to accomplish is the only way to be happy.” – Eugene O’Neill

“When I look up, I see people cashing in. I don’t see heaven or saints or angels. I see people cashing in on every decent impulse and every human tragedy.” – Joseph Heller

DhananjayParkhe

HR Headlines: via naukri.com

HR HEADLINES
click here
Hiring Activity sees 8% rise in December 2018 as compared to December 2017: Naukri JobSpeak
The Naukri JobSpeak Index for December 2018 at (1,987), marked an 8% increase in hiring from December 2017 (1,833). In the month of December 2018, the recruitment activity in IT-Software witnessed a growth of 14% as compared to December 2017.The Auto/Ancillary industry recorded a notable rise of 24% and the HR domain grew by 17% in December 2018. The hiring sentiment across metropolitan cities was positive with Bangalore and Delhi recording a rise of 13% and 10% respectively. Commenting on the report, Ms. Sumeet Singh, CMO, InfoEdge India Ltd. said, “The year 2018 has ended with a growth in hiring across most major cities and top industries. For the past few months IT and Auto/Auto Ancillary have been leading the growth. It has been a good year for BPO, and FMCG and we hope to see the trend in hiring to continue.”
Source : 10-01-19   Businesstoday.in   Compiled by www.naukri.com
RBI appoints Mr. Nandan Nilekani as Chairman of high-level committee on digital payments in India
The Reserve Bank of India has appointed Infosys co-founder Mr. Nandan Nilekani as the Chairman of a high-level committee on deepening of digital payments in India. Other members of the committee include Mr. HR Khan, former RBI deputy governor; Mr. Kishore Sansi, former Vijaya Bank MD, Ms. Aruna Sharma; former secretary of the Ministry of Information Technology and Steel; and Mr. Sanjay Jain, Chief Innovation Officer, Center for Innovation, Incubation and Entrepreneurship (CIIE), IIM- Ahmedabad. The committee will review the existing status of digitization of payments in the country, and will identify the current gaps and suggest ways to bridge them. It will also assess the current levels of digital payments in financial inclusion. The panel will also “undertake cross-country analyses to identify best practices that can be adopted in our country to accelerate digitization of the economy and financial inclusion through greater use of digital payments,” said an RBI statement.
Source : 08-01-19   Businesstoday.in   Compiled by www.naukri.com
Apple CEO Mr. Tim Cook gets big salary hike second year in a row
Apple Inc hiked the salary of its chief executive Mr. Tim Cook by 22 per cent during the past year, resulting in his remuneration for 2018 reaching almost $15.7 million, a filing submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission showed. According to the document, Mr. Cook took home $3 million as base salary and $12 million as bonus. Apple paid $680,000 as “other compensation” to Mr. Cook, which includes private air travel expenses and security costs. This was the second year in a row that Mr. Cook saw a hefty rise in his pay cheque. The 58-year old received Rs 12.8 million as his annual compensation as the Apple CEO, whereas he was paid $8.7 million in 2016. “The Compensation Committee determined that no downward adjustments to the payouts would be made based on Apple’s 2018 performance and the individual contributions of our named executive officers and approved the maximum total payout at 400 percent of annual base salary,” the Apple filing said.
Source : 09-01-19   Businesstoday.in   Compiled by www.naukri.com
Mr. Rajesh Sud pulls of the CEO race for YES Bank
To succeed Mr. Rana Kapoor as Chief Executive Officer of YES Bank, Mr. Rajesh Sud and Mr. Rajat Monga had been shortlisted. According to reports now, however, Mr. Sud has backed out of the running. Mr. Monga is thus the only recommendation for the CEO’s job at the moment. The RBI, in October, had instructed that Mr. Kapoor’s successor be appointed by 1st February, 2019 and the executive tenure of Mr. Rana Kapoor has been brought down to January 31st, 2019. A search and selection committee has been responsible for shortlisting the candidates to run the enterprise. This committee had the directive to evaluate both internal and external candidates and make their recommendations to the board to allow time also for the RBI’s final approval. Mr. Monga has served with the bank since 2004 when it commenced functioning. At present, he is the Senior Group President of financial markets at Yes Bank and has also served as its Chief Financial Officer. While Mr. Sud has not yet commented on his decision to withdraw from the race, Ms. Madhu Kapur and Mr. Rana Kapoor are pressed for time to finalize CEO and Chairman selection decisions. As with any new top leadership appointment, it would be safe to assume that the bank might see operational changes in the near future.
Source : 11-01-19   Peoplematters.in   Compiled by www.naukri.com
OYO announces key leadership appointments in China, Europe and Malaysia
OYO Hotels & Homes has announced a slew of leadership appointments across three of its fast-growing international markets as it endeavors to aggressively expand its presence across China, Europe, and Malaysia. The company has announced the appointment of Mr. Sam Shi as its chief operating officer (COO) for OYO Jiudian, its Chinese subsidiary, which over the past year has emerged as its second home market after India. Prior to joining OYO, Mr. Shi was the President of Global Consumables and chief executive at Asia Pulp & Paper Co. He also has worked with energy drink giant Red Bull and French multinational hospitality firm Accor Group, besides having a two decade-long run across roles at Pepsi China. Mr. Shi will report to Mr. Ritesh Agarwal, founder & CEO at OYO, who is looking over the China market directly. Mr. Agarwal said, “China is a home market and we invest in leadership there like we invest in India. With some of the best and brightest minds joining the leadership team in our home market China and high-priority markets in Southeast Asia and Europe, I am confident that they will be able to help us set new benchmarks in the hospitality industry. What we are attempting is to solve the demand supply imbalance that characterizes the global hospitality sector through technology and talent and these appointments will take us a step ahead in this direction.”
Source : 10-01-19   Peoplematters.in   Compiled by www.naukri.com
Top Infosys executive Mr. Sudip Singh quits amid flurry of exits over last 1 year
Infosys, the country’s second largest software services company, saw another top-level exit in a span of one year with Mr. Sudip Singh, global head of the energy, utilities, resources & services quitting the company. Mr. Singh, who directly reported of CEO & MD Mr. Salil Parekh, was with the company for close to two decades and was managing a portfolio of around $1.5 billion under his vertical. Mr. Singh’s exit comes close on the heels of that of Mr. Ken Toombs, then global head of consulting, who had put in his papers in October last year. Since January this year, Infosys has seen some key management personnel leaving the company with Mr. M D Ranganath, the then chief financial officer of the firm being the most prominent, who had resigned from the firm in August last year. Mr. Rajesh Krishnamurthy, who was the president and head of the company’s Europe operations, quit the firm in January last year after a 26-year-long stint. Similarly, Ms. Sangita Singh, an executive vice president and head of Infosys’s $750-million healthcare and life sciences vertical, left the company in June. Around the same time, another senior-level executive, Mr. Nitesh Banga, who was heading Infosys’s manufacturing vertical, had also put in his papers.
Source : 07-01-19   Business-standard.com   Compiled by www.naukri.com
Uber appoints Mr. Pavan Vaish as Head of central operations in India
Ride hailing platform Uber said it has appointed Daksh e-services co-founder Mr. Pavan Vaish as the head of central operations in India. “As we embark on our next wave of growth, we are building and strengthening a team of industry experts and veterans who appreciate the impact of ride sharing and are committed towards innovation for a better tomorrow,” Uber President India and South Asia Mr. Pradeep Parameswaran said. Uber is confident that Mr. Vaish will play a pivotal role in writing the next chapter of the company’s growth journey, he added. Mr. Vaish also co-founded Quadrant Infotech, an offshore data capturing business focused on the US market. Besides, Mr. Vaish has served as the global Chief Operating Officer at UnitedLex. He was also the co-founder and CEO of Daksh e-services, widely recognized as one of the most successful services acquisition in tech giant IBM’s history.
Source : 07-01-19   Livemint.com   Compiled by www.naukri.com
Air India delays salaries for second month in a row
National carrier Air India has defaulted on salary payments for the second consecutive month missing the December pay-day amid liquidity crunch. Air India had failed to pay to its over 20,000 employees on time for most of the months last year. Like other public sector enterprises, the airline is supposed to pay the salaries on the last day of the month. “Air India has not paid the December salary to its entire staff. Worst, there is no word on the date of payment,” an airline official said. When contacted, an Air India spokesperson said the salary payment is under “process,” without offering a timeline for the “process” to be completed. Air India’s union representing narrow-body pilots had last month claimed that a majority of its members were defaulting on their bank loans and other financial commitments due to the salary delays.
Source : 08-01-19   Moneycontrol.com   Compiled by www.naukri.com
Vodafone plans to cut up to 1,200 jobs from its Spanish business
Vodafone plans to cut up to 1,200 jobs from its Spanish business, the company said though it declined to give further details ahead of talks with labour representatives expected to begin at the end of the month. The telephone company said in November it planned to reduce its costs in Spain and Italy to respond to challenging business conditions.
Source : 10-01-19   Moneycontrol.com   Compiled by www.naukri.com
American Express appoints new CHRO
American Express India announced the appointment of Mr. Kabir Julka as the Chief Human Resources Officer, India. In this role, Mr. Julka is responsible for the development and delivery of a business-focused HR strategy that attracts, develops, motivates, and retains American Express’ most important asset – its people. Throughout his 10-year career with American Express, Mr. Julka has held a range of Human Resources roles in Asia and built a strong track record of successfully partnering with business leaders to drive strategic organizational goals. His most recent role was as Vice President, HR – Greater China & South East Asia in Hong Kong, where he partnered with the business to develop the HR blue print for American Express’ newly created joint venture in mainland China as well as providing support in building a high performing and collaborative team across multiple Asian markets. Welcoming Kabir to the new role, Mr. Manoj Adlakha, CEO, American Express Banking Corp., India, said “As part of our commitment to strengthen the market in India, we are delighted to welcome Kabir. He has made a significant contribution to American Express over the past ten years and I believe that his knowledge and subject matter expertise will help us accelerate further growth in the Indian market. We look forward to Kabir joining the India Leadership team and would like to wish him the very best going forward.”
Source : 10-01-19   Peoplematters.in   Compiled by www.naukri.com
From Ujjivan to Suryoday, small-finance banks to hire 5,000 staff by March
With hiring being a recurring theme in the banking sector, India’s small-finance banks are planning to recruit about 4,000-5,000 people in smaller towns between January and March this year. AU Small Finance Bank, ESAF Small Finance Bank, Ujjivan Small Finance Bank and Suryoday are expecting to hire more staff in the coming months. The pace of recruitment is accelerating as lenders are in the final stages of opening branches in line with their initial plans. Mr. Sabyasachi Chakraverty, business head, banking & financial services, at human resources services company TeamLeaseNSE, said, “Larger branch footprint is leading to more job creation and relocation opportunities for people to want to move to their home-towns.” AU Small Finance Bank is planning to hire about 1,500 people in the next three months, while Ujjivan would add about 600 people. ESAF wants to hire 500 people, and Suryoday 200-250 people. Other small-finance banks are also expanding their networks.
Source : 10-01-19   Business-standard.com   Compiled by www.naukri.com
Raymond Chairman Mr. Gautam Singhania to step down from all group companies
Raymond Group promoter and Chairman Mr. Gautam Hari Singhania stated that he will step down as Chairman from all group companies and dissociate himself from day-today functioning. It is to be noted that Mr. Gautam Singhania had stepped down from the position of the Chairman of Raymond Apparel in November last year, paving the way for Mr. Nirvik Singh to take charge as the Non – Executive Chairman of Raymond Apparel Limited. Mr. Singhania, who has already moved out from the chairman’s post for the FMCG entities and Raymond Apparel which handles the branded apparel business, will next move out of the two engineering entities — JK Files and Ring Plus Aqua. He is already looking for a professional chairman to head them, and he may even move out from the top post of the flagship entity, Raymond Ltd. Mr. Gautam Singhania stated, “At Raymond Ltd, I don’t know how long I will be the chairman. I have something in mind which I don’t want to talk about now. I am not the chairman of all other group companies which are significant.” He added that he is creating independent governance for each company and will ensure the promoter family is always away from day-to-day functioning.
Source : 10-01-19   Peoplematters.in   Compiled by www.naukri.com
Changes in e-commerce norms to have marginal impact on hiring, say firms
The recently announced changes in norms for e-commerce companies with foreign investment may have sent the players into a tizzy, but recruitment firms expect only marginal impact on hiring in the sector in the near future. According to GlobalHunt Managing Director Mr. Sunil Goel, there could be a “marginal 5-10 per cent” impact in the near future, but hiring is expected to continue. “The impact of changes in the policy would not be that large in the sector… supply chain and customer service will remain crucial functions wherein hiring shall continue to happen to meet the consistently growing demand of the consumers, he said. In December, the government introduced new regulations that would bar online marketplaces with foreign investments from selling products of the companies where they hold stakes, and ban exclusive marketing arrangements. Another provision states that the inventory of a vendor will be seen as controlled by a marketplace, if over 25 per cent of the vendor’s purchases are from the marketplace entity, including the latter’s wholesale unit. These norms — which are effective February 1 — would hit Amazon and Walmart-backed Flipkart the hardest. These two e-commerce platforms are also the largest in the country.
Source : 08-01-19   Business-standard.com   Compiled by www.naukri.com
HTC Global Services to hire 3000 people
HTC Global Services is planning to hire 2,000-3,000 people in India in the coming two years to support its $1-billion revenue target by the end of 2020. The IT services company has a strong employee base across its development centers in Chennai, Hyderabad, and Bengaluru. The company has a workforce of 11,000 employees globally including Ciber and CareTech, which was acquired in 2014. “We are finalizing hiring and it will not be less than 2000-3000 people by 2020 for India,” said Mr. Chary Mudumby, Chief Technology Officer, HTC Global Services, adding that its customers are looking for better value resulting in an increased demand for talent with domain knowledge. The IT service firm is competing with the other multinational IT services company such as IBM, Accenture, and others. Companies such as HTC and others have seen a disruption in their business model as clients in the US, and other markets are now demanding more digital technology-led delivery. “We are trying to bring in talent from the educational institutions because the current market demand for emerging technology is more,” added Mr. Mudumby. He is upbeat about HTC’s growth, and he feels digitization of existing services and support using robotic process automation, machine learning, and AI will drive the growth.
Source : 08-01-19   Peoplematters.in   Compiled by www.naukri.com
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DhananjayParkhe

Great Quotes of the Day

SEASONED NUTS: QUOTABLE
“Human beings are so destructive. I sometimes think we’re a kind of plague, that will scrub the earth clean. We destroy things so well that I sometimes think, maybe that’s our function. Maybe every few eons, some animal comes along that kills off the rest of the world, clears the decks, and lets evolution proceed to its next phase.” – Michael Crichton

“Perhaps our greatest distinction as a species is our capacity, unique among animals, to make counter-evolutionary choices.” – Jared Diamond

DhananjayParkhe

Did you know…

Did you know…

… that today is the birthday of Jim Croce (1942)? Jim Croce was an American singer-songwriter. Between 1966 and 1973, Croce released five studio albums and 11 singles. His singles “Bad, Bad Leroy Brown” and “Time in a Bottle” were both number one hits on the Billboard Hot 100 charts. Celebrate his birthday by listening to some of your favorite music today.

~~~

Today’s Inspirational Quote:

“Our lives are to be used and thus to be lived as fully as possible, and truly it seems that we are never so alive as when we concern ourselves with other people.”

— Harry Chapin

DhananjayParkhe

What to expect for the global economy in 2019 | World Economic Forum

via What to expect for the global economy in 2019 | World Economic Forum

10 predictions for the global economy in 2019

Pedestrians are reflected on an electronic board showing stock prices outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan December 27, 2018. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon - RC1449CDB900

The sharp drop-off in world trade growth is a major risk in the coming year
Image: REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon

The global economy started 2018 with strong, synchronized growth. But as the year progressed, momentum faded and growth trends diverged. The US economy accelerated, thanks to fiscal stimulus enacted early in the year, while the economies of the Eurozone, the UK, Japan and China began to weaken. These divergent trends will persist in 2019. IHS Markit predicts global growth will edge down from 3.2% in 2018 to 3.1% in 2019, and keep decelerating over the next few years.

One major risk in the coming year is the sharp drop-off in world trade growth, which fell from over 5% at the beginning of 2018 to nearly zero at the end. With anticipated escalation in trade conflicts, a contraction in world trade could drag down the global economy even more. At the same time, the combined effects of rising interest rates and surging equity and commodity market volatility mean that financial conditions worldwide are tightening. These risks point to the increasing vulnerability of the global economy to further shocks, and the rising probability of a recession in the next couple of years.

Our top 10 economic forecasts for 2019

1. The US economy will remain above trend

Based on estimates about sustainable growth in the labour force and productivity, we assess the trend, or potential, growth in the US economy to be around 2.0%. In 2018, US growth was well above trend at 2.9%, though the acceleration was almost entirely due to a large dose of fiscal stimulus in the form of tax cuts and spending increases. The impact of this stimulus will still be felt in 2019, but will diminish as the year progresses. As a result, we expect growth of 2.6% in 2019 – less than in 2018, but still above trend.

2. Europe’s expansion will slow even more

Eurozone growth peaked in the second half of 2017, and has declined steadily since then. IHS Markit predicts a further decline to 1.5% in 2019. Political uncertainty, including Brexit, challenges to Emmanuel Macron’s government, and the winding down of Angela Merkel’s chancellorship, are contributing to a decline in business sentiment. Economic factors such as the tightening of credit conditions and heightened trade tensions are also driving the deceleration in growth.

3. Japan’s recovery will remain weak, and its economy will grow less than 1% in 2019

Japan’s economy is expected to expand by 0.8% in 2018, with this rate increasing only slightly in 2019 to 0.9%. The slowdown in China’s economy and the fallout from trade tensions between the US and China are drags on growth. Monetary policy will continue to be ultra-accommodative next year. The cyclical decline in Japan’s growth is occurring in an environment of very weak long-term growth. Adverse demographics – specifically a declining labour force – are not being offset by strong enough productivity growth. The “third arrow” of Abenomics, which was supposed to implement significant structural reforms and boost productivity, has been slow to materialize.

4. China’s economy will keep decelerating

The quarterly rate of Chinese growth has been steadily edging down since the beginning of 2017, hitting its lowest level in 10 years in the third quarter of 2018. On an annual basis, the pace of expansion has slowed from 6.9% in 2017 to 6.6% in 2018, and will fall further to 6.3% in 2019. In response to recent economic shocks – including the impact of US tariffs, which has so far been limited – policy-makers have unleashed a series of monetary and fiscal measures to help support growth and stabilize financial markets.

However, these measures are likely to remain modest. Credit growth will continue to be constrained by the massive debt overhang and the government’s commitment to deleveraging, at least in the medium to long term. On the other hand, the government’s stimulus efforts may well become more aggressive if trade tensions with the US (re)escalate and growth is seriously damaged.

5. Emerging market growth will decelerate to 4.6% in 2019

Some economies, including Brazil, India and Russia, experienced a mild pickup in growth in 2018, while others, such as Argentina, South Africa and Turkey, came under intense financial pressure and suffered recessions or near-recessions. Going forward, emerging markets face a number of headwinds, including slowing growth in advanced economies and in the pace of world trade; the strong US dollar; tightening financial conditions; and rising political uncertainty in countries such as Brazil and Mexico. A few countries will be able to buck these trends, especially dynamic economies with low levels of debt, notably in Asia.

6. Commodities markets could be in for another rollercoaster ride in 2019

Demand growth next year still looks strong enough to provide commodity markets with support, making the kind of price collapse seen during 2015 unlikely. However, volatility in commodity markets will continue in 2019, particularly in oil markets. We predict oil prices will rise a bit in the near term and average around $70.0 per barrel over the coming year, compared with an average $71.0 in 2018. That said, the risks to prices of oil and other commodities are predominantly on the downside, given slowing demand growth and rising supply. Despite volatility, we predict that by the end of 2019, prices will be little different from their current readings.

7. Global inflation rates will remain close to 3.0%

Most of the rise in consumer price inflation between 2015 and 2018 – from 2.0% to 3.0% – was due to a transition in the developed world from deflationary, or near deflationary, conditions to inflation rates that are close to central banks’ targets of 2.0%. Over the near term, we expect global inflation and developed economy inflation to remain close to 3.0% and 2.0%, respectively.

While there will be upward pressures in many economies as output gaps close and unemployment rates fall – in some cases to multi-decade lows – there are downward pressures as well. Outside the US, growth is weakening. Moreover, relative to 2018, commodity prices will be relatively flat on average in 2019. Finally, with the trade war in a “temporary truce”, the upward push from tariff increases will be on hold.

8. The Fed will raise rates, and a few other central banks may follow

With the world’s key economies at different points in the business cycle, it is not surprising that central banks are moving at different speeds and in different directions. However, given weaker growth and muted inflationary pressures, the pace of removing accommodation is likely to be even more modest than previously expected.

The US Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates three times in 2019. Other central banks, including the Bank of England (depending on the Brexit process), the Bank of Canada, and a few emerging market central banks – such as those in Brazil, India and Russia – may also raise rates.

The European Central Bank will not hike rates until early 2020. Similarly, we do not believe the Bank of Japan will end its negative interest rate policy until 2021. The People’s Bank of China is the one major central bank moving in the opposite direction; worried about growth, it is providing modest stimulus.

9. The US dollar will hold at current elevated levels for much of 2019

Continued above-trend US growth and more rate hikes by the Fed are the primary reasons for this anticipated strength. Given the recent relative calm in forex markets, especially relative to emerging market currencies, another big appreciation of the US dollar seems unlikely.

Nevertheless, the potential for volatility remains very high. Political uncertainty in Europe could be very negative for the euro and sterling; we expect that the euro/dollar rate will end 2019 at around $1.10, compared with $1.14 at the end of 2018. At the same time, we predict that the renminbi/dollar rate will hold fairly steady just below the psychological level of 7.0 – the result of the Chinese government’s desire for financial stability.

10. The risks of policy shocks have risen, but probably not enough to trigger a recession in 2019

Policy mistakes remain the biggest threats to global growth in 2019 and beyond. The simmering trade conflicts are dangerous, not because they have done damage so far – they haven’t – but because they could easily escalate and get out of control. In addition, rising budget deficits in the US, high debt levels in the US, Europe and Japan, and potential missteps by key central banks all pose threats to the global economy.

The good news is that the probability of such policy mistakes seriously hurting global growth in 2019 is still relatively low. However, IHS Markit believes that the risks of damage from policy mistakes will rise in 2020 and beyond, as growth slows further.

10 predictions for the global economy in 2019

Pedestrians are reflected on an electronic board showing stock prices outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan December 27, 2018. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon - RC1449CDB900

The sharp drop-off in world trade growth is a major risk in the coming year
Image: REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon

The global economy started 2018 with strong, synchronized growth. But as the year progressed, momentum faded and growth trends diverged. The US economy accelerated, thanks to fiscal stimulus enacted early in the year, while the economies of the Eurozone, the UK, Japan and China began to weaken. These divergent trends will persist in 2019. IHS Markit predicts global growth will edge down from 3.2% in 2018 to 3.1% in 2019, and keep decelerating over the next few years.

One major risk in the coming year is the sharp drop-off in world trade growth, which fell from over 5% at the beginning of 2018 to nearly zero at the end. With anticipated escalation in trade conflicts, a contraction in world trade could drag down the global economy even more. At the same time, the combined effects of rising interest rates and surging equity and commodity market volatility mean that financial conditions worldwide are tightening. These risks point to the increasing vulnerability of the global economy to further shocks, and the rising probability of a recession in the next couple of years.

Our top 10 economic forecasts for 2019

1. The US economy will remain above trend

Based on estimates about sustainable growth in the labour force and productivity, we assess the trend, or potential, growth in the US economy to be around 2.0%. In 2018, US growth was well above trend at 2.9%, though the acceleration was almost entirely due to a large dose of fiscal stimulus in the form of tax cuts and spending increases. The impact of this stimulus will still be felt in 2019, but will diminish as the year progresses. As a result, we expect growth of 2.6% in 2019 – less than in 2018, but still above trend.

2. Europe’s expansion will slow even more

Eurozone growth peaked in the second half of 2017, and has declined steadily since then. IHS Markit predicts a further decline to 1.5% in 2019. Political uncertainty, including Brexit, challenges to Emmanuel Macron’s government, and the winding down of Angela Merkel’s chancellorship, are contributing to a decline in business sentiment. Economic factors such as the tightening of credit conditions and heightened trade tensions are also driving the deceleration in growth.

3. Japan’s recovery will remain weak, and its economy will grow less than 1% in 2019

Japan’s economy is expected to expand by 0.8% in 2018, with this rate increasing only slightly in 2019 to 0.9%. The slowdown in China’s economy and the fallout from trade tensions between the US and China are drags on growth. Monetary policy will continue to be ultra-accommodative next year. The cyclical decline in Japan’s growth is occurring in an environment of very weak long-term growth. Adverse demographics – specifically a declining labour force – are not being offset by strong enough productivity growth. The “third arrow” of Abenomics, which was supposed to implement significant structural reforms and boost productivity, has been slow to materialize.

4. China’s economy will keep decelerating

The quarterly rate of Chinese growth has been steadily edging down since the beginning of 2017, hitting its lowest level in 10 years in the third quarter of 2018. On an annual basis, the pace of expansion has slowed from 6.9% in 2017 to 6.6% in 2018, and will fall further to 6.3% in 2019. In response to recent economic shocks – including the impact of US tariffs, which has so far been limited – policy-makers have unleashed a series of monetary and fiscal measures to help support growth and stabilize financial markets.

However, these measures are likely to remain modest. Credit growth will continue to be constrained by the massive debt overhang and the government’s commitment to deleveraging, at least in the medium to long term. On the other hand, the government’s stimulus efforts may well become more aggressive if trade tensions with the US (re)escalate and growth is seriously damaged.

5. Emerging market growth will decelerate to 4.6% in 2019

Some economies, including Brazil, India and Russia, experienced a mild pickup in growth in 2018, while others, such as Argentina, South Africa and Turkey, came under intense financial pressure and suffered recessions or near-recessions. Going forward, emerging markets face a number of headwinds, including slowing growth in advanced economies and in the pace of world trade; the strong US dollar; tightening financial conditions; and rising political uncertainty in countries such as Brazil and Mexico. A few countries will be able to buck these trends, especially dynamic economies with low levels of debt, notably in Asia.

6. Commodities markets could be in for another rollercoaster ride in 2019

Demand growth next year still looks strong enough to provide commodity markets with support, making the kind of price collapse seen during 2015 unlikely. However, volatility in commodity markets will continue in 2019, particularly in oil markets. We predict oil prices will rise a bit in the near term and average around $70.0 per barrel over the coming year, compared with an average $71.0 in 2018. That said, the risks to prices of oil and other commodities are predominantly on the downside, given slowing demand growth and rising supply. Despite volatility, we predict that by the end of 2019, prices will be little different from their current readings.

7. Global inflation rates will remain close to 3.0%

Most of the rise in consumer price inflation between 2015 and 2018 – from 2.0% to 3.0% – was due to a transition in the developed world from deflationary, or near deflationary, conditions to inflation rates that are close to central banks’ targets of 2.0%. Over the near term, we expect global inflation and developed economy inflation to remain close to 3.0% and 2.0%, respectively.

While there will be upward pressures in many economies as output gaps close and unemployment rates fall – in some cases to multi-decade lows – there are downward pressures as well. Outside the US, growth is weakening. Moreover, relative to 2018, commodity prices will be relatively flat on average in 2019. Finally, with the trade war in a “temporary truce”, the upward push from tariff increases will be on hold.

8. The Fed will raise rates, and a few other central banks may follow

With the world’s key economies at different points in the business cycle, it is not surprising that central banks are moving at different speeds and in different directions. However, given weaker growth and muted inflationary pressures, the pace of removing accommodation is likely to be even more modest than previously expected.

The US Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates three times in 2019. Other central banks, including the Bank of England (depending on the Brexit process), the Bank of Canada, and a few emerging market central banks – such as those in Brazil, India and Russia – may also raise rates.

The European Central Bank will not hike rates until early 2020. Similarly, we do not believe the Bank of Japan will end its negative interest rate policy until 2021. The People’s Bank of China is the one major central bank moving in the opposite direction; worried about growth, it is providing modest stimulus.

9. The US dollar will hold at current elevated levels for much of 2019

Continued above-trend US growth and more rate hikes by the Fed are the primary reasons for this anticipated strength. Given the recent relative calm in forex markets, especially relative to emerging market currencies, another big appreciation of the US dollar seems unlikely.

Nevertheless, the potential for volatility remains very high. Political uncertainty in Europe could be very negative for the euro and sterling; we expect that the euro/dollar rate will end 2019 at around $1.10, compared with $1.14 at the end of 2018. At the same time, we predict that the renminbi/dollar rate will hold fairly steady just below the psychological level of 7.0 – the result of the Chinese government’s desire for financial stability.

10. The risks of policy shocks have risen, but probably not enough to trigger a recession in 2019

Policy mistakes remain the biggest threats to global growth in 2019 and beyond. The simmering trade conflicts are dangerous, not because they have done damage so far – they haven’t – but because they could easily escalate and get out of control. In addition, rising budget deficits in the US, high debt levels in the US, Europe and Japan, and potential missteps by key central banks all pose threats to the global economy.

The good news is that the probability of such policy mistakes seriously hurting global growth in 2019 is still relatively low. However, IHS Markit believes that the risks of damage from policy mistakes will rise in 2020 and beyond, as growth slows further.

DhananjayParkhe

What to expect for the global economy in 2019 | World Economic Forum

via What to expect for the global economy in 2019 | World Economic Forum

10 predictions for the global economy in 2019

Pedestrians are reflected on an electronic board showing stock prices outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan December 27, 2018. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon - RC1449CDB900

The sharp drop-off in world trade growth is a major risk in the coming year
Image: REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon

The global economy started 2018 with strong, synchronized growth. But as the year progressed, momentum faded and growth trends diverged. The US economy accelerated, thanks to fiscal stimulus enacted early in the year, while the economies of the Eurozone, the UK, Japan and China began to weaken. These divergent trends will persist in 2019. IHS Markit predicts global growth will edge down from 3.2% in 2018 to 3.1% in 2019, and keep decelerating over the next few years.

One major risk in the coming year is the sharp drop-off in world trade growth, which fell from over 5% at the beginning of 2018 to nearly zero at the end. With anticipated escalation in trade conflicts, a contraction in world trade could drag down the global economy even more. At the same time, the combined effects of rising interest rates and surging equity and commodity market volatility mean that financial conditions worldwide are tightening. These risks point to the increasing vulnerability of the global economy to further shocks, and the rising probability of a recession in the next couple of years.

Our top 10 economic forecasts for 2019

1. The US economy will remain above trend

Based on estimates about sustainable growth in the labour force and productivity, we assess the trend, or potential, growth in the US economy to be around 2.0%. In 2018, US growth was well above trend at 2.9%, though the acceleration was almost entirely due to a large dose of fiscal stimulus in the form of tax cuts and spending increases. The impact of this stimulus will still be felt in 2019, but will diminish as the year progresses. As a result, we expect growth of 2.6% in 2019 – less than in 2018, but still above trend.

2. Europe’s expansion will slow even more

Eurozone growth peaked in the second half of 2017, and has declined steadily since then. IHS Markit predicts a further decline to 1.5% in 2019. Political uncertainty, including Brexit, challenges to Emmanuel Macron’s government, and the winding down of Angela Merkel’s chancellorship, are contributing to a decline in business sentiment. Economic factors such as the tightening of credit conditions and heightened trade tensions are also driving the deceleration in growth.

3. Japan’s recovery will remain weak, and its economy will grow less than 1% in 2019

Japan’s economy is expected to expand by 0.8% in 2018, with this rate increasing only slightly in 2019 to 0.9%. The slowdown in China’s economy and the fallout from trade tensions between the US and China are drags on growth. Monetary policy will continue to be ultra-accommodative next year. The cyclical decline in Japan’s growth is occurring in an environment of very weak long-term growth. Adverse demographics – specifically a declining labour force – are not being offset by strong enough productivity growth. The “third arrow” of Abenomics, which was supposed to implement significant structural reforms and boost productivity, has been slow to materialize.

4. China’s economy will keep decelerating

The quarterly rate of Chinese growth has been steadily edging down since the beginning of 2017, hitting its lowest level in 10 years in the third quarter of 2018. On an annual basis, the pace of expansion has slowed from 6.9% in 2017 to 6.6% in 2018, and will fall further to 6.3% in 2019. In response to recent economic shocks – including the impact of US tariffs, which has so far been limited – policy-makers have unleashed a series of monetary and fiscal measures to help support growth and stabilize financial markets.

However, these measures are likely to remain modest. Credit growth will continue to be constrained by the massive debt overhang and the government’s commitment to deleveraging, at least in the medium to long term. On the other hand, the government’s stimulus efforts may well become more aggressive if trade tensions with the US (re)escalate and growth is seriously damaged.

5. Emerging market growth will decelerate to 4.6% in 2019

Some economies, including Brazil, India and Russia, experienced a mild pickup in growth in 2018, while others, such as Argentina, South Africa and Turkey, came under intense financial pressure and suffered recessions or near-recessions. Going forward, emerging markets face a number of headwinds, including slowing growth in advanced economies and in the pace of world trade; the strong US dollar; tightening financial conditions; and rising political uncertainty in countries such as Brazil and Mexico. A few countries will be able to buck these trends, especially dynamic economies with low levels of debt, notably in Asia.

6. Commodities markets could be in for another rollercoaster ride in 2019

Demand growth next year still looks strong enough to provide commodity markets with support, making the kind of price collapse seen during 2015 unlikely. However, volatility in commodity markets will continue in 2019, particularly in oil markets. We predict oil prices will rise a bit in the near term and average around $70.0 per barrel over the coming year, compared with an average $71.0 in 2018. That said, the risks to prices of oil and other commodities are predominantly on the downside, given slowing demand growth and rising supply. Despite volatility, we predict that by the end of 2019, prices will be little different from their current readings.

7. Global inflation rates will remain close to 3.0%

Most of the rise in consumer price inflation between 2015 and 2018 – from 2.0% to 3.0% – was due to a transition in the developed world from deflationary, or near deflationary, conditions to inflation rates that are close to central banks’ targets of 2.0%. Over the near term, we expect global inflation and developed economy inflation to remain close to 3.0% and 2.0%, respectively.

While there will be upward pressures in many economies as output gaps close and unemployment rates fall – in some cases to multi-decade lows – there are downward pressures as well. Outside the US, growth is weakening. Moreover, relative to 2018, commodity prices will be relatively flat on average in 2019. Finally, with the trade war in a “temporary truce”, the upward push from tariff increases will be on hold.

8. The Fed will raise rates, and a few other central banks may follow

With the world’s key economies at different points in the business cycle, it is not surprising that central banks are moving at different speeds and in different directions. However, given weaker growth and muted inflationary pressures, the pace of removing accommodation is likely to be even more modest than previously expected.

The US Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates three times in 2019. Other central banks, including the Bank of England (depending on the Brexit process), the Bank of Canada, and a few emerging market central banks – such as those in Brazil, India and Russia – may also raise rates.

The European Central Bank will not hike rates until early 2020. Similarly, we do not believe the Bank of Japan will end its negative interest rate policy until 2021. The People’s Bank of China is the one major central bank moving in the opposite direction; worried about growth, it is providing modest stimulus.

9. The US dollar will hold at current elevated levels for much of 2019

Continued above-trend US growth and more rate hikes by the Fed are the primary reasons for this anticipated strength. Given the recent relative calm in forex markets, especially relative to emerging market currencies, another big appreciation of the US dollar seems unlikely.

Nevertheless, the potential for volatility remains very high. Political uncertainty in Europe could be very negative for the euro and sterling; we expect that the euro/dollar rate will end 2019 at around $1.10, compared with $1.14 at the end of 2018. At the same time, we predict that the renminbi/dollar rate will hold fairly steady just below the psychological level of 7.0 – the result of the Chinese government’s desire for financial stability.

10. The risks of policy shocks have risen, but probably not enough to trigger a recession in 2019

Policy mistakes remain the biggest threats to global growth in 2019 and beyond. The simmering trade conflicts are dangerous, not because they have done damage so far – they haven’t – but because they could easily escalate and get out of control. In addition, rising budget deficits in the US, high debt levels in the US, Europe and Japan, and potential missteps by key central banks all pose threats to the global economy.

The good news is that the probability of such policy mistakes seriously hurting global growth in 2019 is still relatively low. However, IHS Markit believes that the risks of damage from policy mistakes will rise in 2020 and beyond, as growth slows further.

10 predictions for the global economy in 2019

Pedestrians are reflected on an electronic board showing stock prices outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan December 27, 2018. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon - RC1449CDB900

The sharp drop-off in world trade growth is a major risk in the coming year
Image: REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon

The global economy started 2018 with strong, synchronized growth. But as the year progressed, momentum faded and growth trends diverged. The US economy accelerated, thanks to fiscal stimulus enacted early in the year, while the economies of the Eurozone, the UK, Japan and China began to weaken. These divergent trends will persist in 2019. IHS Markit predicts global growth will edge down from 3.2% in 2018 to 3.1% in 2019, and keep decelerating over the next few years.

One major risk in the coming year is the sharp drop-off in world trade growth, which fell from over 5% at the beginning of 2018 to nearly zero at the end. With anticipated escalation in trade conflicts, a contraction in world trade could drag down the global economy even more. At the same time, the combined effects of rising interest rates and surging equity and commodity market volatility mean that financial conditions worldwide are tightening. These risks point to the increasing vulnerability of the global economy to further shocks, and the rising probability of a recession in the next couple of years.

Our top 10 economic forecasts for 2019

1. The US economy will remain above trend

Based on estimates about sustainable growth in the labour force and productivity, we assess the trend, or potential, growth in the US economy to be around 2.0%. In 2018, US growth was well above trend at 2.9%, though the acceleration was almost entirely due to a large dose of fiscal stimulus in the form of tax cuts and spending increases. The impact of this stimulus will still be felt in 2019, but will diminish as the year progresses. As a result, we expect growth of 2.6% in 2019 – less than in 2018, but still above trend.

2. Europe’s expansion will slow even more

Eurozone growth peaked in the second half of 2017, and has declined steadily since then. IHS Markit predicts a further decline to 1.5% in 2019. Political uncertainty, including Brexit, challenges to Emmanuel Macron’s government, and the winding down of Angela Merkel’s chancellorship, are contributing to a decline in business sentiment. Economic factors such as the tightening of credit conditions and heightened trade tensions are also driving the deceleration in growth.

3. Japan’s recovery will remain weak, and its economy will grow less than 1% in 2019

Japan’s economy is expected to expand by 0.8% in 2018, with this rate increasing only slightly in 2019 to 0.9%. The slowdown in China’s economy and the fallout from trade tensions between the US and China are drags on growth. Monetary policy will continue to be ultra-accommodative next year. The cyclical decline in Japan’s growth is occurring in an environment of very weak long-term growth. Adverse demographics – specifically a declining labour force – are not being offset by strong enough productivity growth. The “third arrow” of Abenomics, which was supposed to implement significant structural reforms and boost productivity, has been slow to materialize.

4. China’s economy will keep decelerating

The quarterly rate of Chinese growth has been steadily edging down since the beginning of 2017, hitting its lowest level in 10 years in the third quarter of 2018. On an annual basis, the pace of expansion has slowed from 6.9% in 2017 to 6.6% in 2018, and will fall further to 6.3% in 2019. In response to recent economic shocks – including the impact of US tariffs, which has so far been limited – policy-makers have unleashed a series of monetary and fiscal measures to help support growth and stabilize financial markets.

However, these measures are likely to remain modest. Credit growth will continue to be constrained by the massive debt overhang and the government’s commitment to deleveraging, at least in the medium to long term. On the other hand, the government’s stimulus efforts may well become more aggressive if trade tensions with the US (re)escalate and growth is seriously damaged.

5. Emerging market growth will decelerate to 4.6% in 2019

Some economies, including Brazil, India and Russia, experienced a mild pickup in growth in 2018, while others, such as Argentina, South Africa and Turkey, came under intense financial pressure and suffered recessions or near-recessions. Going forward, emerging markets face a number of headwinds, including slowing growth in advanced economies and in the pace of world trade; the strong US dollar; tightening financial conditions; and rising political uncertainty in countries such as Brazil and Mexico. A few countries will be able to buck these trends, especially dynamic economies with low levels of debt, notably in Asia.

6. Commodities markets could be in for another rollercoaster ride in 2019

Demand growth next year still looks strong enough to provide commodity markets with support, making the kind of price collapse seen during 2015 unlikely. However, volatility in commodity markets will continue in 2019, particularly in oil markets. We predict oil prices will rise a bit in the near term and average around $70.0 per barrel over the coming year, compared with an average $71.0 in 2018. That said, the risks to prices of oil and other commodities are predominantly on the downside, given slowing demand growth and rising supply. Despite volatility, we predict that by the end of 2019, prices will be little different from their current readings.

7. Global inflation rates will remain close to 3.0%

Most of the rise in consumer price inflation between 2015 and 2018 – from 2.0% to 3.0% – was due to a transition in the developed world from deflationary, or near deflationary, conditions to inflation rates that are close to central banks’ targets of 2.0%. Over the near term, we expect global inflation and developed economy inflation to remain close to 3.0% and 2.0%, respectively.

While there will be upward pressures in many economies as output gaps close and unemployment rates fall – in some cases to multi-decade lows – there are downward pressures as well. Outside the US, growth is weakening. Moreover, relative to 2018, commodity prices will be relatively flat on average in 2019. Finally, with the trade war in a “temporary truce”, the upward push from tariff increases will be on hold.

8. The Fed will raise rates, and a few other central banks may follow

With the world’s key economies at different points in the business cycle, it is not surprising that central banks are moving at different speeds and in different directions. However, given weaker growth and muted inflationary pressures, the pace of removing accommodation is likely to be even more modest than previously expected.

The US Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates three times in 2019. Other central banks, including the Bank of England (depending on the Brexit process), the Bank of Canada, and a few emerging market central banks – such as those in Brazil, India and Russia – may also raise rates.

The European Central Bank will not hike rates until early 2020. Similarly, we do not believe the Bank of Japan will end its negative interest rate policy until 2021. The People’s Bank of China is the one major central bank moving in the opposite direction; worried about growth, it is providing modest stimulus.

9. The US dollar will hold at current elevated levels for much of 2019

Continued above-trend US growth and more rate hikes by the Fed are the primary reasons for this anticipated strength. Given the recent relative calm in forex markets, especially relative to emerging market currencies, another big appreciation of the US dollar seems unlikely.

Nevertheless, the potential for volatility remains very high. Political uncertainty in Europe could be very negative for the euro and sterling; we expect that the euro/dollar rate will end 2019 at around $1.10, compared with $1.14 at the end of 2018. At the same time, we predict that the renminbi/dollar rate will hold fairly steady just below the psychological level of 7.0 – the result of the Chinese government’s desire for financial stability.

10. The risks of policy shocks have risen, but probably not enough to trigger a recession in 2019

Policy mistakes remain the biggest threats to global growth in 2019 and beyond. The simmering trade conflicts are dangerous, not because they have done damage so far – they haven’t – but because they could easily escalate and get out of control. In addition, rising budget deficits in the US, high debt levels in the US, Europe and Japan, and potential missteps by key central banks all pose threats to the global economy.

The good news is that the probability of such policy mistakes seriously hurting global growth in 2019 is still relatively low. However, IHS Markit believes that the risks of damage from policy mistakes will rise in 2020 and beyond, as growth slows further.

DhananjayParkhe

World Economic Forum – The Agenda Weekly.

Grüezi mitenand! Welcome to the World Economic Forum’s weekly newsletter, delivered to over 240,000 subscribers.

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The risk of policy shocks. 10 predictions for the global economy in 2019.
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Bengaluru on the move. The world’s most dynamic cities are in the East.
⇒ Explore: Real Estate

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You can’t afford it. Why the rise in home values is tearing the US apart.

We need a politics of paradise. An alternative view of globalization 4.0.

AI can find your toilet. The power of open source data + artificial intelligence.

Blame politics, not poverty. All too often, organized violence is rational.

The ocean may survive after all. New technologies just need political will.

On our radar

Fork competition and possession rights. Welcome to blockchain economics.

Global chaos has hidden patterns – which the US defense departmentintends to find with AI.

Stable and reticent, not aggressive. A new look at China’s foreign policy.

Spacefaring civilizations. How our future in space will echo our future on Earth.

Measuring the speed of climate change. A new study of the oceans offers more precise projections.

Motivation

Startpreneur’s fav newsletter – YOU STORY

Daily Capsule | 11th Jan
Hello

Here’s a dream-come-true destination for you – the month-long ice festival in China’s Heilongjiang Province. The Harbin International Ice and Snow Sculpture Festival began last Saturday. Over the years, it has come to be known as a one-of-its-kind event and attracts millions of tourists even in the dead of winter.

And it looks like 2019 won’t be any different. Tourists from different corners of the world have already started to flock to China and mesmerising pictures from the annual festival are making rounds all over the internet. Among the top attractions, this year has a magnificent ice castle called the Harbin Ice and Snow World, a spectacular Buddha statue, 3D light show and an ice sculptors’ competition.

Breathtaking in every way, the festival is supposed to last until February 5. Time to book your air tickets!

Cheers,

Team YourStory

Stories you shouldn’t miss

Reliance Jio enters the fintech market! After disrupting India’s telecom industry, Reliance Jio is now moving into fintech, one of the fastest-growing sectors of the Indian economy. The Mukesh Ambani-owned Reliance Jio is planning to get into the point-of-sale (PoS) devices space and has launched pilots with merchants in Mumbai, Delhi, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Chennai and Pune. This move by Reliance Jio comes at a time when card transactions in India are at a peak.

Bengaluru-based online stock trading startup Zerodha has emerged as the largest broker in India with the highest number of clients  (8.47 lakh clients) as compared to traditional giants like ICICI Securities, HDFC Securities, Kotak Securities, Motilal Oswal, and Sharekhan. In addition to this, the Zerodha platform also marks processing two million trades per day, according to Founder and CEO Nithin Kamath, making Zerodha the “largest retail brokerage firm in the world, not just India.”

A technical glitch seems to have exposed the private financial data of sellers and vendors on Amazon India. Although the retail giant didn’t reveal the exact extent of the breach, their official statement said that the technical team had resolved the issue on Tuesday. “Our teams identified the issue and resolved it on priority and sellers were soon able to download the correct MTR reports,” an Amazon India spokesperson said.

If Uber’s newly appointed Chief Product Officer (CPO) Manik Gupta’s words are any indication, the company is going to have a great year when it comes to product development and growth in 2019. IN conversation with YourStory, Gupta shed light on how Uber is building products out of their India R&D centre to deploy globally, and their plans for Uber Eats. “I am excited about building a product infrastructure and more features that bring the power of our platform to every user and consumer,” he said.

Organisations representing the interests of Indian startups – including Nasscom, TiE Global, Indian Private Equity & Venture Capital Association, and Indian Angel Network – made a joint appeal to the government to provide relief on angel tax provisions. The startup community has been struggling with the issue of angel tax, under which the income tax department has even sent formal notices to several startups questioning their valuation methodology.

Shreyas Shibulal has launched a new early-stage fund, Micelio to invest across different startups primarily in the electric vehicle space. Speaking about the fund, Shreyas said, ”The amount will depend on what the core needs and requirements of each startup are. Currently, we are focussed on seed and early-stage companies.”

Hike plans on launching multiple apps this year in line with its strategy of focussing on “social and content” through 2019. These multi apps will be specialised apps aimed at solving singular problems with greater ease and efficacy and they will be executed through a step by step evolved approach. The company, currently, has more than 100 million downloads and has raised $175 million from Foxconn and Tencent.

Mumbai based edtech startup Eruditus raised $40 million in Series C funding led by Sequoia India, with participation from existing investor Bertelsmann India Investments. The latest funding will allow the company to increase its course offerings in high-demand subject areas such as data science, machine learning, blockchain and cybersecurity and to expand its language offerings to include Portuguese and Mandarin, in addition to English and Spanish.

Cloud-based software solutions company Capillary Technologies has launched DealHunt, its first exclusive deals and coupons shopping app. Deemed as a one-stop destination for offers and deals across various categories such as fashion, beauty, food, health, travel, and electronics, the app is available in Android version in Google Play Store. And later this month, the iOS version will also be expected to debut.

Among Netflix users, it’s not unheard of to share their login credentials. After all, the OTT platform’s services are among the costliest in India, where competitors like Amazon Prime and Hotstar have comparatively cheaper options. But this might soon come to an end, all thanks to an AI-led tool developed by UK-based startup Synamedia.

DhananjayParkhe

My fav newsletter – Brainpickings.org

This is the Brain Pickings midweek pick-me-up: Once a week, I plunge into my 12-year archive and choose something worth resurfacing and resavoring as timeless nourishment for heart, mind, and spirit. (If you don’t yet subscribe to the standard Sunday newsletter of new pieces published each week, you can sign up here – it’s free.) If you missed this year’s highlights, you can see the best of Brain Pickings 2018 in one place. And if you find any value and joy in my labor of love, please consider supporting it with a donation – over these twelve years, I have spent tens of thousands of hours and tremendous resources on Brain Pickings, and every little bit of support helps keep it going. If you already donate: THANK YOU.

FROM THE ARCHIVE | The Difficult Balance of Intimacy and Independence: Beloved Philosopher and Poet Kahlil Gibran on the Secret to a Loving and Lasting Relationship

kahlilgibran_theprophet.jpg?fit=320%2C462

“What’s the use of falling in love if you both remain inertly as-you-were?” Mary McCarthy asked her friend Hannah Arendt in their correspondence about love. The question resonates because it speaks to a central necessity of love — at its truest and most potent, love invariably does change us, deconditioning our painful pathologies and elevating us toward our highest human potential. It allows us, as Barack Obama so eloquently wrote in his reflections on what his mother taught him about love, “to break across our solitude, and then, if we’re lucky, [be] finally transformed into something firmer.”

But in the romantic ideal upon which our modern mythos of love is built, the solidity of that togetherness is taken to such an extreme as to render love fragile. When lovers are expected to fuse together so closely and completely, mutuality mutates into a paralyzing codependence — a calcified and rigid firmness that becomes brittle to the possibility of growth. In the most nourishing kind of love, the communion of togetherness coexists with an integrity of individuality, the two aspects always in dynamic and fluid dialogue. The philosopher Martin Heidegger captured this beautifully in his love letters to Hannah Arendt“Why is love rich beyond all other possible human experiences and a sweet burden to those seized in its grasp? Because we become what we love and yet remain ourselves.”

This difficult balance of intimacy and independence is what the great Lebanese-American artist, poet, and philosopher Kahlil Gibran (January 6, 1883–April 10, 1931) explores with uncommon insight and poetic precision in a passage from his 1923 masterwork The Prophet (public library).

pabloneruda_poetofthepeople5.jpg?w=600

Illustration by Julie Paschkis from Pablo Neruda: Poet of the People by Monica Brown

By way of advice on the secret to a loving and lasting marriage, Gibran offers:

2e292385-dc1c-4cfe-b95e-845f6f98c2ec.pngLet there be spaces in your togetherness,
And let the winds of the heavens dance between you.

Love one another but make not a bond of love:
Let it rather be a moving sea between the shores of your souls.
Fill each other’s cup but drink not from one cup.
Give one another of your bread but eat not from the same loaf.
Sing and dance together and be joyous, but let each one of you be alone,
Even as the strings of a lute are alone though they quiver with the same music.

Give your hearts, but not into each other’s keeping.
For only the hand of Life can contain your hearts.
And stand together, yet not too near together:
For the pillars of the temple stand apart,
And the oak tree and the cypress grow not in each other’s shadow.

Complement this particular portion of the wholly enchanting The Prophet with Virginia Woolf on what makes love last, philosopher Alain Badiou on how we fall and stay in love, Anna Dostoyevsky on the secret to a happy marriage, Mary Oliver on how differences bring couples closer together, and Joseph Campbell on the single most important factor in sustaining romantic relationships, then revisit Gibran on the seeming self vs. the authentic self and the absurdity of our self-righteousness.

FORWARD TO A FRIEND/READ ARTICLE ONLINE/Like https://www.brainpickings.org/2016/09/27/kahlil-gibran-the-prophet-love-marriage/ on Facebook

donating=loving

I pour tremendous time, thought, heart, and resources into Brain Pickings, which remains free and ad-free, and is made possible by patronage. If you find any joy, stimulation, and consolation in my labor of love, please consider supporting it with a donation. And if you already donate, from the bottom of my heart: THANK YOU.

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Live Special in NYC: Figuring with Elizabeth Gilbert

figuring_PW.jpg?resize=680%2C357

What an honor and a joy to sit down with Elizabeth Gilbert — one of the most splendid writers and splendid humans I know — for a conversation around (though not necessarily about) Figuring at Pioneer Works, the only public event I am doing for the book.

Tickets are priced at $29 — the number of chapters in the book — with all proceeds benefiting Pioneer Works’ endeavor to build New York City’s first-ever public observatory.

Signed copies of both of our books will be available, as will a special limited edition of 50 signed, numbered copies of Figuring made exclusively for Pioneer Works, also benefitting the observatory.

February 8, 2019
Pioneer Works
159 Pioneer Street
Brooklyn, NY 11231

Doors at 6PM, talk at 7PM. General admission. Seating is first come, first served.

FORWARD TO A FRIEND/GET TICKETS/Like https://www.brainpickings.org/live/ on Facebook

IF YOU MISSED THEM:

The Best of Brain Pickings 2018

The Loveliest Children’s Books of 2018

Overall Favorite Books of 2018

---
DhananjayParkhe

Non violence

Meher Baba about non violence.


”In the same way, while discharging the clear duty of resisting foreign aggression, India should try to keep free from hate, malice or revenge.


Aggression must be met with resistance, and here it is unpractical to insist upon non-violence. Pure non-violence or incorruptible love can come spontaneously only where duality has been completely transcended in the realization of the last and the only Truth. And non-violence of the brave is possible only for advanced souls who have, through rigorous discipline, eradicated from their minds all forms of greed and hate. But so far as the masses are concerned, it is undesirable to ask them to stick to the external formula of non-violence, when it is their clear duty to resist aggression in self-defense or in the defense of other weak brothers. In the case of the unevolved masses, universal insistence upon non-violence can only lead to their being cowardly, irresponsible and inert.


True love is no game of the faint-hearted and the weak; it is born of strength and understanding. The ideal of non-violence, in the face of aggression, is impracticable for the masses: and it will have a tendency to be readily used as a subterfuge for servile acceptance of ignoble conditions and contemptible desertion of a clear duty. In its enthusiasm for the highest ideal, wise leadership can in no way afford to lose all sense of the relative and the practical. Human evolution proceeds by gradual stages from selfish violence to unselfish violence, and then from non-violence of the brave to the pure and incorruptible non-violence of Truth as Infinite Love.


All narrowness limits love. In India, as well as in every other part of the world, humanity is breaking itself into narrow groups based upon the superficial and ultimately false differences of caste, creed, race, nationality, religion or culture: and since these groups have been long accustomed to separative distrust and fear, they have indifference, contempt or hostility towards each other. All this is due to ignorance, prejudice and selfishness: and it can only be mended by fostering the spirit of mutuality which breaks through artificial isolationism, and which derives its strength from the sense of the inviolable unity of life as a whole.


Creative leadership (which has so much scope in the soil of India) will have to recognize and emphasize the fact that all men are already united with each other not only by their co-partnership in the Great Divine Plan for earth, but also by virtue of their all being equally the expression of One Life.” Meher Baba 


Lord Meher page 5431

DhananjayParkhe

Getting too much on Narcissism in my Quora mailbox these days. Is this the same writer? I wonder.

Quote “Six months after my ex-narcissist left me, he returned to gather a few items he’d left behind. Because of the reading and healing I’d done since he left, I knew he wasn’t returning because he missed me. I suspected he needed both the items and likely wanted sex.

I’d made up my mind prior to him arriving I was going to be strong and nurture my hard work and healing by not giving in to his charms. It was more difficult than I’d expected, as he looked better than ever after not having seen him in six months. The chemistry between us was always prolific. I maintained my position and explained to him that going there with him would set me back emotionally.

During this brief but pleasant visit I managed to affirm several things that provided me further conviction he is definitely a covert narcissist:

After six months….

  1. He never said he missed me.
  2. He never said he loved me.
  3. He never accepted any blame for the breakup.
  4. He felt the circumstances of his work were the cause.
  5. He said, “It wasn’t you I left.” — I’m still trying to figure out what this means ….
  6. He told me if the circumstances change, we should try again
  7. He told me he was there to support me (which is a lie because
  8. I hadn’t seen him in six months)
    In summary, a true narcissist isn’t capable of missing you; they aren’t wired with emotional empathy, but many have learned intellectual empathy and have learned what to say (ie; “I miss you so much!” ) to lure you back in to ‘try again.’ My advice: stand your ground. Serve your own need to heal instead.

via (2) Home – Quora

DhananjayParkhe

BJP claims to have conducted world’s largest political party training | bjp political party training | bjp party training

he troops have been trained, and now they are waiting for the D-Day. No, not about the Indian army, but the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which claims to have trained 1.5 million party workers to fight the forthcoming elections.

“The training programme called Pandit Deendayal Upadhyaya Prashikshan Mahabhiyan has been on for the last four years, and it is with this reserve of political cadre that the BJP is approaching the national elections 2019,” said party general secretary Muralidhar Rao. He claims it to be “a unique and unprecedented experiment in the history of the BJP.”
The programme began in 2015 after a “flood” of people got attracted to the party during the polls and the massive membership drive that bagged them 110 million members making it the largest political party in the world. “We followed it up with a maha sampark abhiyan (mass contact programme) by which the new members were contacted in their homes by party workers. The third stage was the national training programme, claimed to be the first of its kind anywhere in the world.
“Under this we trained workers at four levels from mandals to district to state and national level,” said Muralidhar Rao. “This has a particular format and curriculum for each segment and a specific schedule for training. It was one-and-half days at mandal level, four-and-half days at national level.”
Booklets were prepared for each section of workers on the party’s organisational and ideological issues. Major national, economic and international issues were also covered. All top BJP leaders participated at various levels.
The first phase was to train one and half million workers. In the second phase, the training programme was taken to all wings of the organisation such as kisan morcha, SC/ST morcha, mahila morcha, yuva morcha, media, OBC morcha, minority morcha, and the secretarial staff. “For this we prepared new literature, specific to the concerned areas…. In all, we produced two dozen booklets,” said Rao.
Rao claims that nothing of this kind has been attemped anywhere in the world. He expect the large pool of trained party workers will swing the polls in favour of the party, and also throw up leaders of the future.

via BJP claims to have conducted world’s largest political party training | bjp political party training | bjp party training

Motivation

A Book review I recently read :)

I am stockpiling antibiotics for the Apocalypse, even as I await the blossoming of paperwhites on the windowsill in the kitchen,” Anne Lamott admits at the beginning of Almost Everything. Despair and uncertainty surround us: in the news, in our families, and in ourselves. But even when life is at its bleakest–when we are, as she puts it, “doomed, stunned, exhausted, and over-caffeinated”–the seeds of rejuvenation are at hand. “All truth is a paradox,” Lamott writes, “and this turns out to be a reason for hope. If you arrive at a place in life that is miserable, it will change.” That is the time when we must pledge not to give up but “to do what Wendell Berry wrote: ‘Be joyful, though you have considered all the facts.'”

In this profound and funny book, Lamott calls for each of us to rediscover the nuggets of hope and wisdom that are buried within us that can make life sweeter than we ever imagined. Divided into short chapters that explore life’s essential truths, Almost Everything pinpoints these moments of insight as it shines an encouraging light forward.

Candid and caring, insightful and sometimes hilarious, Almost Everything is the book we need and that only Anne Lamott can write.

Motivation

Wonderful Quote

“The best thing for being sad is to learn something. That’s the only thing that never fails. You may grow old and trembling in your anatomies, you may lie awake at night listening to the disorder of your veins, you may miss your only love, you may see the world about you devastated by evil lunatics, or know your honor trampled in the sewers of baser minds. There is only one thing for it then — to learn. Learn why the world wags and what wags it. That is the only thing which the mind can never exhaust, never alienate, never be tortured by, never fear or distrust, and never dream of regretting.’” // T.H. White

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